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<Research> UBS Cuts CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) TP to HKD16; FY Profit In Line but Dividend Misses
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UBS published a research report stating that CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) reported revenue and net profit of HKD94.4 billion and HKD9 billion respectively for FY2026, representing YoY growth of 5% and 52%. The results were in line with the broker’s expectations and consistent with the previously announced positive profit alert of 45% to 55% growth. During the period, the company’s payout ratio was 73%, below market expectations but within management’s target range of 70% to 80%.

UBS noted that retail sales grew 14.7% YoY in April to May this year. Same-store sales increased by 19.7% for mainland China self-operated stores, 15.2% for mainland franchise stores, and 40.6% for Hong Kong and Macau stores, showing significant improvement from the March quarter. Management guided for overall revenue to record mid- to high-single-digit YoY growth in FY2027, with high-single-digit same-store sales growth in mainland China and low-double-digit growth in Hong Kong and Macau. In light of the recent strong same-store sales performance and better-than-expected official guidance, UBS raised its FY2027-FY2029 EPS forecasts for CHOW TAI FOOK by 1% to 5%.

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UBS said that, considering the higher beta, it increased the weighted average cost of capital in its discounted cash flow model from 9.3% to 10%, and lowered the TP for CHOW TAI FOOK from HKD18.5 to HKD16.0. The new TP corresponds to 15x FY2027 forecast PE and a dividend yield of 7%. The broker maintained its Buy rating on CHOW TAI FOOK. (ad/u)
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